The World Meteorological Organization announced on Thursday that the El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen further and could become the most powerful ever recorded by 2027. The organization stated that if the current trend continues, this El Niño event could surpass any observed in the last four decades.
Forecasts from the UN weather agency indicate a high probability of El Niño persisting until February 2027 due to exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty in the forecast is unprecedented, according to the WMO.
A severe El Niño event can have significant global impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns, potentially leading to extreme weather events such as typhoons. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented nature of the current El Niño, highlighting the warming trend of the planet.
El Niño is a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years, lasting up to 12 months and affecting rainfall and drought conditions in regions like Latin America.
This year’s El Niño has already affected agricultural production in tropical areas, resulting in a food crisis in Central America. The WMO expects the El Niño to peak later this year, with lingering effects into 2027 and a probable increase in global temperatures.
To address the potential impacts of this powerful El Niño, the WMO is ramping up preparedness and early warning efforts. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the organization’s commitment to collaborating with partners to provide climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.