Military intelligence officials in Ukraine have issued a caution that potential Russian missile attacks on the nation’s power infrastructure could result in a scenario reminiscent of the Chernobyl disaster. Ukrainian specialists have expressed concerns that missile strikes on key substations linked to nuclear power plants by Russia could provoke a catastrophic event not witnessed since 1986.
According to Serhiy Beskrestnov, an expert in electronic warfare, the close proximity of critical substations to nuclear facilities poses a significant risk. He highlighted that these substations are often situated very near reactors, with some being less than a kilometer away and, in certain instances, just 300 meters from nuclear plants.
Beskrestnov warned that an errant Russian strike on such a substation could lead to a disaster comparable to Chernobyl. He emphasized the dangerous combination of Russian attacks on these substations to induce a nationwide blackout, coupled with their historical tendency of missing targets.
The expert cited past incidents where Russian weaponry mistakenly hit civilian structures instead of intended military or industrial targets, underscoring the potential for grave consequences. There are reports indicating that Russia is contemplating assaults on electricity transmission substations supporting Ukraine’s nuclear power plants as part of a coercive strategy to pressure Kyiv into unfavorable terms.
Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR) disclosed that by mid-January 2026, Russian forces had conducted reconnaissance on 10 critical energy sites spread across nine Ukrainian regions. A communication channel, believed to have ties to a senior Ukrainian official, revealed ongoing deliberations within Russia on the timing and methodology of potential attacks on these facilities with the objective of causing prolonged power outages in Ukraine.
Residents were advised to brace for adverse outcomes while acknowledging the unpredictability of Russian actions and casting doubt on Ukraine’s capability to defend against such assaults on its infrastructure. Ukrainian parliament member Victoria Voytsitska expressed skepticism about Russia’s ability to simultaneously incapacitate the Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South Ukraine nuclear power plants, which play a vital role in the country’s power network.