A former CIA operative has singled out a European city as a potential target for a “non-traditional” nuclear weapon. Against the backdrop of escalating global tensions, including the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the China-Taiwan dispute, and the recent US apprehension of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the year 2026 is increasingly seen as a precarious period.
Andrew Bustamante, a former CIA intelligence officer with experience in the US Air Force and nuclear Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) operations, is well-placed to provide insights into these tensions. Hosting the EverydaySpy podcast, he maintains a consistent stance on the issue, emphasizing the need for nations to be vigilant and ready to respond to potential conventional nuclear attacks.
While Andrew deems the likelihood of a nuclear-tipped ICBM in 2026 as extremely low, he highlights a more significant concern of a covert attack that would be harder to detect and counter. Referring to it as a “non-traditional nuclear explosion,” he expresses worries about scenarios like dirty bombs or illicitly transported nuclear warheads.
Expressing his views, Andrew dismisses the possibility of Russia launching a nuclear-tipped ICBM against Kyiv but raises the specter of a nuclear explosion in Kyiv via a smuggled briefcase nuke originating from Belarus. He stresses the chaos and challenges such an event would pose, urging for swift and decisive action to prevent further escalation.
Explaining the concept of a ‘dirty bomb’ and the Oreshnik, an intermediate-range hypersonic missile, Andrew cautions against overreactions in high-pressure situations, advocating for measured responses to avoid escalating conflicts. He underscores the strategic advantage of clandestine attacks over traditional nuclear strikes, citing the potential for de-escalation through covert actions.
Andrew forecasts a 25% likelihood of a nuclear device detonation, cautioning that such an event may not unfold as expected. He envisions scenarios like a shoulder-launched nuclear missile in the South China Sea creating an electromagnetic pulse to disrupt military operations, emphasizing the need for adaptive policy responses amid evolving threats.
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